Get Ready For An Increase In Reported Cyber Attacks!
I'm breaking a blogging rule.
"Write things that are relevant when they were written and also relevant months later so that you can capitalize on that sweet sweet catalog effect." --Me
I'm breaking this rule by making a cyber prediction for the next 3 months.
Here it goes:
Between now mid February 2022 and the end of April 2022 we will see a marked increase in the report of cyber attacks specifically involving Nation States (I am putting my thumb on the scale leaning towards Russia).
For those who read security news and you were to compare where we are now and where we were 12 even 24 months ago the reported news is very different. It feels like every week we are seeing news with the tag line "Historical DDOS attack just occurred." 
To be completely blunt, these articles have lost their charm. Being bombarded with the same thing over and over loses it's impact that was initially felt.
This is dangerous for security professionals because if we let that feeling sit too long we run the risk of losing our edge. 
At the time of this writing, Russia is sitting on the doorstep of Ukraine. Tensions have not been this high in a long time.
America(Current presidents and past) have made promises to Ukraine about what they would do in the case of an invasion.
The EU has made some promises as well.
What leads me to believe that there will be a uptick in reported offensive campaigns ? Historically we have seen presidential decisions roll out before huge engagements. (See my piece on 9/11 vs 2021 here)
In 2021 a Presidential Executive order was made to strengthen national(American) cyber security. In order to justify an offensive attack, we need to have clear definitions of what is wrong. The executive order in a sense served to do this. The line has been drawn.
This begs the question.
At what point does a Cyber Attack from Russia justify military engagement? I think this question is weighing heavy on people's minds right now.
Defining the line in the sand, is fine. However you do need public opinion to move forward. It is for this reason that I believe that we will see a dramatic increase of reported cyber attacks.
The truth is cyber attacks are happening all the time, but the average person doesn't know/care. "Someone else is taking care of that for me..."
If the general masses however were to be bombarded with the facts of actual real offensive nation state cyber campaigns and Russia's name is plastered on it (true or not); It's at this point that the public opinion sways toward supporting an actual physical military engagement.
Without going crazy into details about the Afghanistan retreat, let's think logically about where America's military is. I mean physically, where is it? How capable are they of mobilizing. I would put money on the fact that America could move pretty fast if Russia invades Ukraine.
In summary, Russia is sitting on the doorstep of Ukraine. They (Russia) are not backing down. America and allies have made promises that the world is invested in knowing if they will follow through. America has defined what is "wrong" when it comes to cyber space, will crossing the line be enough to justify military action? If so, what role North American media play in converting the populace to supporting said engagement
Thanks for Reading.
The Wall Street Journal: Cybersecurity Stocks Rally on Fears of Increase in Cyberattacks.
Financial Times: Cyber warfare in Ukraine poses a threat to the global system.
NDTV: Thousands Without Internet After Massive "Cyberattack" In Europe: Report.
Global News: Ukraine targeted by Russian, Belarusian phishing campaigns, cyberattacks: Google.
National Post: Exclusive: So many Canadian fighters in Ukraine, they have their own battalion, source says.
The Register: Dunno about you, but we're seeing an 800% increase in cyberattacks, says one MSP.
Fox Business: Is Russia targeting US for cyberattacks?.
The White House: FACT SHEET: Act Now to Protect Against Potential Cyberattacks.
CNN: Cybersecurity CEO: 'More targeted ransomware attacks' by Russia coming.
The New Yorker: The Threat of Russian Cyberattacks Looms Large.
Bloomberg: U.S.: Russian Cyberattack on Ally May Trigger NATO Reply.
Financial Times: Inside Ukraine’s cyber defence: the battle against Moscow’s online salvos.
Reuters.com: West warns of Russian cyberattacks on critical infrastructure.